2013年5月21日 星期二

黃金的事後諸葛?




最近太多人在討論黃金,從最高點跌落至今,已經跌了35%-40%,好多人不停地發表意見同時也好多人大肆收購,真是一個資訊爆炸的年代。

最近好多分析師來自各個投資機構,不斷的在發表它們的意見: 多空的原因甚至延伸到,季節性需求,這是印度的雨季沒有購買黃金,所以造成金價崩落;歐洲政府的不穩定,連帶對於黃金的信心不穩...

巴菲特說黃金

讓我們從一些字裡行間看看巴菲特對於黃金投資的看法:
1. 火星人從外太空看著人類把黃金從地底挖出來,把金融化然後挖另一個洞再埋起來,然後再花錢請人在外面看守,而這是個沒有任何用處的東西,火星人一邊看一邊搔著頭不解。
巴菲特說: “Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

2. 買黃金基本上就是認為未來幾個月(年)內,大眾的恐懼會增加,在這個不確定的年代,有的時候的確發生了。如果大家真的變得更怕,那你就賺錢,如果大家變得比較不怕,(像現在,)那你就賠錢,但是黃金本身不會有任何的產出。
巴菲特說: “Gold is a way of going long on fear, and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money, but the gold itself doesn’t produce anything."

3. 黃金啊黃金,巴菲特說: 
“I have no views as to where it will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won’t do anything between now and then except look at you.  Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) will be making a lot of money and there will be a lot — and it’s a lot — it’s a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that."

RJ說: 除非你是央行買黃金來平衡穩定貴國貨幣,不然,簡單來說,以黃金作為投資標的,純粹就是投機,希望未來有另一個比你還笨的人花比你高的價錢來跟你買,所謂的Greater Fool方式,因為黃金不會有任何的產出(貨物或是服務),所以是隻不會生蛋的雞。

Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Warren-Buffett-brka-gold-investing-investing/10/3/2012/id/44617#ixzz2TzcfyErI


反觀日本股市,從安倍發功開始,也已經漲了40%。大家的看法呢?

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